Thursday, July 1, 2010

Does god play nice ?

Well to start off, I was thinking of writing of something light, something funny, something that would probably be a little more spicy, but as a part of the build up to this blog, (probably because I really wanted to write something meaningful) I decided to ask some questions to myself… So as an experiment, I just typed out all the questions that I could come up with at that point in time. The last question that I managed to write was: “Does god play dice?”. Since I did not exactly want to copy the FAQ, I decided to modify the question a little and write.

The first and the “yet-to-be-convincingly-debunked” theory of everything postulated by mankind was “God” . If for once we decide to accept the hypothesis that a wise guy from the sky is responsible for everything that happens, it explains pretty much everything. The only sad part however is that the proponents are too often found wanting for lack of evidence. I do not intend to go into an argument into the existence of the almighty (although I am mightily tempted to do the same). All I intend to contemplate (and probably insinuate) is that for the creator of the alpha and the omega (if it exists); there may not really have any standards of good or bad. For that “I-know-it-all” guy, Existence of human emotions may not be anything beyond a few strings of genetic codes and chemical sequences which cause specific activities in specific parts of the human body.

It is our perceptions; essentially our thought processes that make us make judgments of good and evil, right and wrong, good and bad. But what if the “God” perspective is large enough to appreciate that pain is identical to pleasure, joy to sorrow, happiness to sadness, love to hatred and so on??

That would imply that “God”, (given it exists) would have no reason to interfere with the universe, let alone playing favorites in favor of the good guys. To extend the argument, a “God” which would not even interfere with the universe, would have no reason to create the universe. (Since of all entities, why would the creator create the universe in the first place when the very act of creation means setting up a sequence of events, which according to the philosophy of determinism, essentially makes the universe completely predictable and hence “controlled” and not “random”.) The premise is therefore violated and it suggests that the universe should not have had an intelligent creator.
Now since the above suggests the non existence of an actively involved “God”, It still leaves the possibility of a passive one. How about calling that god as something that truly exists everywhere ? Something that tends to emerge out of nothing and without any effort . Well for those who’re still wondering, how about calling that thing “Chaos” ? If we decide to attribute everything to chaos, we would subtly be appreciating the fact that chaos itself leads to order, although in a transitory manner. The flashes of brilliant organization and order that we see in the universe are actually events outside the mean (+/-) 3 sigma range of probabilities.

One of the Masonic 33rd degree mottos states: “Ordo ab chao”, showing the appreciation that the society has had of chaos as the precursor of order. So if I am trying to look at chaos as the supreme force in the universe, I guess it should be okay.
Talking about chaos, one might want to consider watching the movie “The butterfly effect” starring Eric Lively, Erica Durance & Dustin Milligan (for that would help relate better to the following). The point that I am trying to make is that in a chaos system (e.g. the universe) , even an apparently insignificant change in just one of the systemic variables can cause dramatic events in time. The term “butterfly effect” was probably chosen to suggest the awe inspiring idea that something as seemingly little as the flap of a butterfly’s wings can initiate a chain of events to ultimately cause a hurricane of the order of Katrina on the other side of the globe (or for that matter, on the same side. ;) )

The butterfly effect has serious implications on the entire projections business. Be it climate science, financial analytics (our very thing :P ) or hardcore engineering models (not to mention the astrological predictions :P ) they all suffer from this inherent weakness where a variable considered to be insignificant and thus ignored can cause the real world results to be totally out of sync with the projections.

We all love simplifications, our mind loves to believe in simple and smart sounding arguments. Add to it the human arrogance of not accepting our limits, and we try to come up with models to project every damn thing in the world. We try to go way beyond what we are capable of….and then in the process, we expand our horizons. That is a good thing, but the questions to be asked are :
"To what extent should our decision making be based on such projections ?"
"Do the models of probability, or to simplify it, does the past hold enough information to predict the future …..?"
And even if it does, can we really hope to incorporate it all into our projection ? Why then do we try to make long term projections like India having a GDP of USD 37,668 Billion in 2050?
(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC#.282003.29_Dreaming_with_BRICs:_The_Path_to_2050)
The "butterfly effect" also has implications related to our personal lives. For example, something like a mosquito that bit you today may impact your mood to take a decision that could change the course of your life. A little glass full of “stuff” can definitely make you take a decision that alters everything in your life. A few milliliters of hormones can make you desperate enough to decide to marry and regret the decision for the rest of your life. And how can I forget? An idea, can change your life…… (Or the little B might be a little unhappy :P ) talking about the ideas, Is it not true that ideas and beliefs matter most in life….and yes, so do convictions.
Talking about convictions, I would just like to state one of my own: I look at myself as an Objectivist, and believe in pursuing my own happiness and rational self interest. I believe that a certain “reality” exists, though it may not exactly correspond to the reality that we perceive in the world.

Perceptions are all that we can be certain of….it is amazing to understand from an academic standpoint that everything, (including space and time) is relative and may be different to a different observer. I cannot really afford go into the intricacies, but the implications are profound. I have always dreamt of the day when mankind would at least come close to the speed barrier. Of the day when we would have inter galactic travel and inhabit planets across the universe. It is obvious that we need to do it. As the Russian scientist Konstantin Tsiolkovsky said, “The Earth is the cradle of mankind, but one cannot remain in the cradle forever.” Sooner or later, we as a species have to face the challenge of moving on beyond the earth, if not because of an external threat (like a comet, asteroid etc.), it would probably be our own virus-like growth that would make it unavoidable that we pick other planets in suitable solar systems to inhabit. Talking about our growth reminds me of a quote from one of my favorite movies of all time: “The matrix”.

Agent Smith (An Artificially intelligent entity says this to the human protagonist (Neo) and I quote ) : “I'd like to share a revelation that I’ve had during my time here. It came to me when I tried to classify your species, and I realized that humans are not actually mammals. Every mammal on this planet instinctively develops a natural equilibrium with the surrounding environment; but you humans do not. Instead you multiply, and multiply, until every resource is consumed. The only way for you to survive is to spread to another area. There is another organism on this planet that follows the same pattern... a virus. Human beings are a disease, a cancer on this planet, you are a plague, and we... are the cure.”

Interestingly, as a species; we seem to have found the ultimate motivation in growth and not in sustainability. The rush is so blind that all that the only thing that media talks and talks about sustaining is growth itself. I recently read in Alan Greenspan’s “The age of turbulence” that on an average, human productivity grows at something around 2 to 3 percent every year. Why then do we seek to create artificial growth of the order of 7, 8 , 9 , 10 and above (percentages) ? Besides, growth has been reduced mostly to mere numbers. Whatever happened to development? The policy of monetary expansion (read: debasement of the currency) is the new mantra for growth for several economies. The currency is already a major tool for protectionism (which I do not have a problem with though). We find economies like the USA with their sovereign debt rated at the highest possible level while the nation keeps printing greenbacks and borrowing more and more even as municipal and state government bonds yields begin to rise due to rising fears of defaults left right and center.

I think I am overextending myself into something which I am not exactly be an expert of yet, so let me come back to some things which really give value to life and which I am much more sure about. Off course, the big things in life really do matter, and must be pursued. Things like standing up for your beliefs and fighting the odds no matter what happens, that promotion and that dream of owning an island matter a lot as well, however, there are some very small things which we often tend to forget in the (often mad) rush to our goals in life. Its often that little kid smiling at you by the roadside, or that friend you did not talk to in a while. It is often just telling someone that you love them so much that nothing would matter more to you than having you by their side. It is often just going out there and getting soaked in the rain on the bike while speeding way beyond what you can think is within your range of control…it could be playing that awesome composition on your keypad (or for that matter any instrument, I chose keypad since that’s the only instrument that I can play as of now) …It could well be saying a “sorry” which could mean a lot to someone… whatever it is, if it makes you happy and content; by all means, do it. And do it now…. Now that is a conviction that I have.

I am just another guy with his own sets of aspirations, dreams, fears thoughts and beliefs, however I do tend to try sometimes to be myself…. To be “something original” as John Nash used to say (Off course in the movie, “A beautiful mind”: P) Again originality may be an illusion given every bit that one knows has been learnt from the interaction with the external world but it is an illusion that I still chose to pursue. I say this since I may have crossed the boundaries of objectivism in this post a few times, and I request you all to pardon me for any logical or moral inconsistencies, if any. I have a CCAP class to attend at 9 tomorrow morning so I’ve really got to rush homewards now that I’ve stayed till 10:49 PM just to write all this.

Thanks for reading.

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